Commonwealth of Australia Explanatory Memoranda

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COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL AMENDMENT (REPRESENTATION IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES) BILL 2004



2002-2003-2004




THE PARLIAMENT OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA




HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES









COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL AMENDMENT (REPRESENTATION IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES) BILL 2004




EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM













(Circulated by authority of the Special Minister of State,
Senator the Hon Eric Abetz)

COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL AMENDMENT (REPRESENTATION IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES) BILL 2004


GENERAL OUTLINE

The Bill gives effect to the Government’s response to the recommendations of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) in its report entitled: Territory Representation: Report of the Inquiry into increasing the minimum representation of the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory in the House of Representatives. The Government supports the Committee’s findings which are implemented in this Bill by amendments to the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act).

The legislation will achieve the intent of the JSCEM’s recommendations to ensure the transparency and certainty of the process used for the making of the determinations for representation of the Territories in the House of Representatives.

The legislation specifies that the statistics to be provided by the Australian Statistician for the purpose of making a determination are to be the most recent set of statistics in a regular series, compiled and published by the Australian Statistician under the Census and Statistics Act 1905. This removes any ambiguity about which is the latest set of statistics to be used. The format in which they are published may also include statistics in electronic format.

In addition to the estimated populations of the States, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory, the statistics will include the population figures for the Territories of Jervis Bay, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island and each of the other Territories. There is also a requirement that the Electoral Commissioner make to the population statistics whatever adjustments are required by other sections of the Electoral Act for the purposes of making the determination.

The Electoral Commissioner will also be required to ascertain the relevant populations of the States and Territories on the first day after 12 months of the first sitting of the House of Representatives of the new Parliament and make the determination within one month after the 12 month period. If this day falls on a weekend or public holiday then it will be made on the next working day. Details of the calculations used to determine the number of seats to be chosen and any adjustments to the statistics required under the Electoral Act will be published in the Gazette within that month.

The legislation also provides that when the Australian Capital Territory or the Northern Territory falls short of a quota for an additional seat, and that shortfall is within an error margin, the Electoral Commissioner is to re-calculate the entitlement. The error margin is represented by two standard errors of the measure of the net undercount from the previous Census as advised by the Australian Statistician. Two standard errors represent the 95% confidence interval of the sampling error associated with the measure of the net undercount. The net undercount refers to the difference between the gross undercount (the number of people who should have been counted in the Census but were not) and the gross overcount (the number of people who should not have been counted, either because they were counted more than once or were overseas or should not have been counted at all). The upper limit of that confidence level, that is, two standard errors, is to be added to the Territory’s population and the entitlement re-calculated.

Finally, the Bill also sets aside the determination made by the Electoral Commissioner on 19 February 2003 as it relates to the Northern Territory. The determination made prior to the February 2003 determination on 9 December 1999 is to apply for the Northern Territory at the next election. This will ensure that the Northern Territory has two seats. Determination of the number of members to be returned after the next election will be subject to the procedures outlined in the Electoral Act and as amended in this Bill.

Financial impact statement

The financial impact of the Bill is not significant. The cost of an additional member of the House of Representatives to represent the Northern Territory is estimated at approximately $0.8 million per annum over the next four years. This amount includes salary, entitlements, staff and associated costs.

The Australian Electoral Commission will be required to maintain an office for the new Division in the Northern Territory, at an estimated cost of $0.2 million per annum, including three staff and administrative costs.

COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL AMENDMENT (REPRESENTATION IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES) BILL 2004

NOTES ON CLAUSES

Clause 1 – Short Title

1. Clause 1 is a formal provision specifying the short title of the Bill.

Clause 2 – Commencement

2. This clause sets out the commencement provisions for the Bill. Sections 1 to 3 will commence on the day the Bill receives Royal Assent. Schedule 1 will commence seven days after the Bill receives Royal Assent.

Clause 3 – Schedule(s)

3. Clause 3 specifies that the Act referred to in the Schedule is amended by the amendments set out in the Schedule.

Schedule 1 – Amendments

4. Schedule 1 amends the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act).

Item 1 – Subsection 4(1)

5. This item inserts a definition of ‘Census’ into the Electoral Act.

Item 2 – Subsection 46(1)

6. Subsection 46 provides for the Electoral Commissioner to ascertain the numbers of the people of the Commonwealth, States and Territories within one month after the first 12 months of the sitting of the House of Representatives in a new Parliament. The population numbers are ascertained in accordance with the latest statistics of the Commonwealth.

7. This item will repeal and replace subsection 46(1) to specify the population figures which are to be ascertained, the statistics to be used for that purpose and to revise the timeframe within which the population figures are to be ascertained. The amendments will introduce certainty about which population figures are to be used by the Electoral Commissioner when determining the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen at a general election.

8. In addition to the populations of the Commonwealth and the States, amended subsection 46(1) specifies the Territories for which the population numbers are to be ascertained. The ‘other Territories’ referred to in paragraph 46(1)(g) include the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard and McDonald Islands, the Coral Sea Islands Territory and the Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands. For the purposes of the Electoral Act, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) includes the Territory of Jervis Bay in the definition of the ACT contained in subsection 4(1) of the Electoral Act. The Electoral Commissioner will be required to ascertain the relevant populations on the first day after the House of Representatives has sat for a period of 12 months in a new Parliament, rather than within the month after that 12 month period. Where that date falls on a weekend or public holiday the ascertainment is to be made the next working day.

9. New subsection 46(1B) requires the Electoral Commissioner to use the most recent population statistics for each of the States and Territories, compiled and published in a regular series, by the Australian Statistician under the Census and Statistics Act 1905, to ascertain the population numbers. The subsection also specifies those Territories for which the population statistics are to be used. In order to take account of future publication methods, the item provides for these statistics to be published electronically or in an electronic format.

Item 3 – Section 47

10. Section 47 requires the Australian Statistician to supply the Electoral Commissioner with all statistical information, requested by the Electoral Commissioner, that is required under sections 45 to 54 (Division 3) of the Electoral Act for the making of a determination of the number of members to be chosen for the States and Territories at a general election.

11. This item repeals section 47 and substitutes new provisions that specify the statistical information that the Australian Statistician must provide to the Electoral Commissioner, on request. This includes the population statistics under section 46, additional statistical information relating to the ACT and Northern Territory populations, and any other information required by the Electoral Commissioner under Division 3. The additional information for the ACT and the Northern Territory may be used for the calculation of those Territories’ representation in the House of Representatives under amended section 48.

12. In relation to the ACT and the Northern Territory, the Australian Statistician is to provide the following information as population numbers, rather than percentages or factors:
the estimate of the net undercount for each of these Territories at the last Census;
the standard error of the measure of that estimate of the net undercount; and
the upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval for the measure of that estimate of the net undercount.

13. In the conduct of the 5-yearly Census of Population and Housing, a small proportion of the population is missed (undercount) and an even smaller proportion of the population is counted more than once (overcount). To measure the size of this undercount and overcount, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts a household survey (known as the Population Census Post Enumeration Survey) about three weeks after Census night. The ABS then estimates the net undercount of the population. The net undercount is the difference between the gross undercount and the gross overcount. The ABS adds the net undercount of each State and Territory to the Census usual resident count in compiling official estimates of the resident population.

14. As the measures of net undercount are derived from a sample survey, they are subject to sampling error which is reported as the standard error of the net undercount estimates. It is a standard statistical convention to describe that there are 19 chances in 20 (that is 95% confidence) that the true estimate of the level of the undercount (that which may be obtained if the survey was conducted for the whole population) is within the range of plus or minus two standard errors of the estimate of the undercount. Therefore, the ABS is 95% confident that the net undercount is between the lower (minus two standard errors) and upper limits (plus two standard errors).

15. New subsection 47(2) defines the meaning of the standard error and confidence intervals for the purposes of the section. The provision specifies that the Australian Statistician is to determine the estimates of the net undercount and the standard error. The upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval level of the net undercount are calculations derived from these estimates in line with the calculations specified in paragraphs 47(2)(b) and (c). As the net undercount of the Census is routinely determined by the Statistician after each Census, it has not been defined. While there can be different standard errors for different measures of sampling errors, standard error has been defined for the purpose of the section.

Item 4 – Subsection 48(1)

16. Item 4 makes a consequential amendment to subsection 48(1) to provide for the Electoral Commissioner to make the determinations for the States’ and Territories’ representation as soon as possible after ascertaining the relevant populations and within the timeframe set out in new subsection 48(2G).

Item 5 – Paragraph 48(1)(b)

17. Item 5 makes a consequential amendment to paragraph 48(1)(b) to provide for a Territory’s determination of representation to be made in accordance with existing subsection 48(2B) (minimum representation for the ACT and the Northern Territory), amended subsection 48(2C) (determinations for the Territories of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island and the Northern Territory) and new subsection 48(2F) (determinations for the ACT and the Northern Territory).

Item 6 – Subsection 48(2A)

18. Item 6 amends subsection 48(2A) to provide that the determinations made by the Electoral Commissioner when dividing the population numbers by the quota are subject to existing subsection 48(2B), amended subsection 48(2C) and new subsection 48(2F). These subsections are mentioned at item 5 above.

Item 7 – Subsection 48(2C)

19. This item provides for subsection 48(2C) to be subject to new subsection 48(2F) which relates to the determination of seats for the ACT and the Northern Territory when either of those Territories falls short of a quota for an additional seat. Subsection 48(2C) relates to the determination of members to be chosen for the Territories of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island and subsequent treatment where the Electoral Commissioner determines that no member shall be chosen for either, or both, of these Territories. When this occurs, these Territories are taken to be part of the Northern Territory and their populations are included in the Northern Territory’s population. The initial ascertainment of the Northern Territory’s population under subsection 46(1) is deemed not to have been made. The Electoral Commissioner is required to re-ascertain the Northern Territory’s population, including either, or both, of the populations for the Territories of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island, and determine the Northern Territory’s representation under subparagraph 48(2C)(e)(ii).

20. New subsection 48(2F) provides that a determination made under subparagraph 48(2C)(e)(ii) is taken never to have been made when the provisions of new subsection 48(2E) apply to the Northern Territory.

Item 8 – Paragraph 48(2C)(e)

21. This item makes a consequential amendment to paragraph 48(2C)(e) to refer to the time period set out at new subsection 48(2G) within which the Electoral Commissioner must make a determination.

Item 9 – After subsection 48(2C)

22. Item 9 inserts four new subsections in section 48.

23. The Constitution provides the formula to be used for the determination of members of the House of Representatives (section 24). Section 48 of the Electoral Act sets out the process by which the Electoral Commissioner is to determine the number of members of the House of Representatives that are to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election. The determination is based on a formula using a quota and the population statistics detailed at subsection 48(2). The quota is determined by dividing the number of the people of the Commonwealth (that is the six States), as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner in accordance with section 46, by twice the number of Senators for the States. The number of seats is then determined by dividing the population of each of the States and Territories by the quota. When the result is greater than one half of the quota, a State or Territory is entitled to an additional seat.

24. The new subsections relate to the determination of seats for the ACT and the Northern Territory and the time period within which the Electoral Commissioner must make the determinations for all States and Territories.

25. New subsection 48(2D) has the effect of not requiring the Electoral Commissioner to ascertain the population of the Northern Territory under subparagraph 48(2C)(e)(i) incorporating the populations of the Territories of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island on the same day as the initial ascertainment of populations under new subsection 46(1A). The provision includes an explanatory note. The purpose of subsection 48(2C) is discussed at item 7.

26. The Electoral Commissioner must first determine the entitlements of the Territories of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island in order to know whether the population figure for the Northern Territory needs to be re-ascertained under subparagraph 48(2C)(e)(i) to include either of these Territories. While the populations must be ascertained on a particular day (new subsection 46(1A)), the Electoral Commissioner’s determination under section 48 must be made within one month after the first 12 months of the first sitting of the House of Representatives in a new Parliament (new subsection 48(2G)). It would therefore be inconsistent for the Electoral Commissioner to be required to determine the entitlements for Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island at a different time to that required for making the determinations for the States and other Territories.

27. New subsection 48(2E) specifies the circumstances under which arrangements are to apply when either the ACT or the Northern Territory falls short of a quota for an additional seat. New calculations will be required when the shortfall is within a defined ‘margin of error’. The ‘margin of error’ is represented by two standard errors of the sampling error of the estimate of the net undercount of the previous Census count of the population of the Australian Capital Territory or the Northern Territory. Two standard errors are the conventional statistical representation of a 95% confidence level. The standard error is determined by the Australian Statistician and provided to the Electoral Commissioner in accordance with section 47.

28. Where the difference between the population needed to achieve the additional seat and the Territory’s population is less than two standard errors of the estimate of the measure of the net undercount at the last Census, the Territory’s entitlement to seats is to be re-determined. This provision only applies when the difference is within the ‘margin of error’.

29. If the shortfall for the ACT or the Northern Territory is within the ‘margin of error’, new subsection 48(2F) provides for the determination to be re-made. The Territory’s population is taken to be increased by the addition of two standard errors, with the result then divided by the quota determined under subsection 48(2). The Electoral Commissioner is to make this new determination as soon as possible, subject to the timing specified at new subsection 48(2G).

30. A note has been inserted at subsection 48(2F) to refer to adjustments that might be made to the Northern Territory’s population as a result of the operation of subsection 48(2C) (determinations relating to the Territories of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island). When these adjustments are made, the new population figure for the Northern Territory, which includes these Territories, would be used for the purposes of new paragraph 48(2F)(c).

31. New subsection 48(2G) specifies the time period within which the Electoral Commissioner must make the determinations under section 48.

Item 10 – At the end of section 48

32. This item specifies the meaning of ‘standard error’ for the purposes of section 48.

Item 11 – After section 48

33. This item inserts a new section relating to the determination made by the Electoral Commissioner under subsection 48(1) of the Electoral Act on 19 February 2003 as it relates to the Northern Territory’s representation. The Electoral Commissioner determined that one member would be chosen for the Northern Territory at the next election. This would halve the Northern Territory’s current representation of two members.

34. Section 48A provides that the Electoral Commissioner’s determination of 19 February 2003 is set aside, on commencement of the section, to the extent to which it relates to the Northern Territory.

35. In order to avoid any doubt under section 50 of the Electoral Act, the section specifies that the number of members to be chosen in the Northern Territory after the commencement of section 48A and before the Electoral Commissioner makes a new determination after the next federal election, is to be in accordance with the most recent determination that was made before the February 2003 determination. A note to the section indicates that this was the determination of 9 December 1999 which specified that two members would be chosen in the Northern Territory. An explanatory note is also included about the February 2003 determination.

36. The section also provides that, for the purposes of section 86 of the Electoral Act, two new Divisions are taken to have been created on commencement of the section. This provision serves two purposes. Firstly, it ensures the legality of all enrolment transactions that have taken place in the Northern Territory since the determination was made on 19 February 2003.

37. The provision also will enable the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) to create new rolls for the two new Northern Territory Divisions on the day on which the section commences. The new rolls will be created using the same mechanism used after the completion of a redistribution. Elector details will then be removed from the roll for the Division of the Northern Territory and placed on the rolls for the Divisions of Lingiari and Solomon. The electors will then be notified by the AEC of the change, either in writing or by advertisements placed in newspapers.

Item 12 – Subparagraph 49(1)(a)(i)

38. Under section 49, the Electoral Commissioner must, immediately upon making the determination under section 48, give the Minister a certificate with details of the population figures and the numbers of members to be chosen for the House of Representatives. This certificate must then be published in the Gazette. The Minister is to table the certificate in Parliament within five sitting days after receiving it.

39. Item 12 amends subsection 49(1) to specify that the populations of the Commonwealth, the States and the Territories as listed at amended subsection 46(1) are to be included in the certificate.

Item 13 – At the end of paragraph 49(1)(a)

40. This item amends paragraph 49(1)(a) to provide that details of any adjustments made to the statistics supplied by the Australian Statistician and details of all calculations involved in making the determination, including adjustments, are to be included in the certificate given to the Minister and published in the Gazette.

41. The reference to adjustments to the statistics supplied by the Australian Statistician are references to those adjustments which may be necessary to give effect to provisions of the Electoral Act, for example, the addition of the population figure for the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands to the Northern Territory’s population under subsection 48(2C). Apart from adjustments required under the Electoral Act, no other adjustments are to be made to the statistics provided by the Australian Statistician.

Item 14 – At the end of subsection 49(1)

42. Item 14 adds a note referring to the various sections of the Electoral Act for which adjustments of the statistics supplied by the Australian Statistician may be required.

Item 15 – After subsection 49(1)

43. Item 15 provides for the time period within which the certificate presented to the Minister must be published in the Gazette.

 


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